Jamaica facing prospect of continued below normal rainfall as hurricane season draws to a close

September 30, 2026

Jamaica is facing the prospect of continued below-normal rainfall as the 2026 hurricane season draws to a close.

This has raised concerns about water availability, agriculture and the country’s ability to enter the upcoming dry season with adequate water reserves.

According to a statement from the Office of the Prime Minister, Principal Director at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson, says the country is already experiencing worsening drought conditions, despite being within the wet season, with rainfall expected to remain below normal into October.

Mr. Thompson says the situation is particularly concerning because October is normally Jamaica’s peak rainfall month and the country depends on the wet season to replenish dams, reservoirs, aquifers and soil moisture ahead of the dry season.

He explains that the reduced rainfall is closely linked to the unusually strong El Niño, which is suppressing the formation of tropical systems that would normally contribute significant rainfall to Jamaica and the wider Caribbean.

Mr. Thompson notes that the El Niño is continuing to strengthen and is expected to reach its peak during October and November.

He says the phenomenon is among the strongest El Niño events observed, with Pacific Ocean temperatures approaching three degrees above normal.

Mr. Thompson adds that while rainfall will continue to occur across sections of Jamaica, there is currently no indication of significant rainfall on the immediate horizon unless a tropical storm or hurricane affects the island.

The worsening conditions are also placing greater emphasis on water management.

Government agencies responsible for water resources are monitoring surface and groundwater conditions as part of the response to the developing drought.

Mr. Thompson says the country must also consider greater use of groundwater reserves as part of longer-term climate resilience planning.

Mr. Thompson warns that continued rainfall deficits could place additional pressure on water supplies, agriculture and food security, as Jamaica moves into the dry season, making conservation and preparedness increasingly important.